A good omen

Here in the UK, the success rate for IVF is about 25%. I do wonder how in the US, clinic success rates for DE IVF can be 60%. Is it more sophisticated drug protocols and more testing and coaxing of the follicles? Or is it the donors are young? Is there such a thing as egg-sharing in the US?

Anyway, the success rate is officially only 25%, though I might hope KF’s age and low FSH (3.9) and my ability to get pregnant even with rubbish eggs, might mean the chances are better for us.

Even with the good rate we have from our clinic (they’re charging us for standard IVF and a monitored cycle for me, plus drugs and tests, rather than the full donor IVF rate – so it should be about £4000 all in) we can’t afford to do it all again, and KF will have had more than enough by then. So all hopes are pinned on the IVF itself, plus any frozen embryos we manage to create.

25%.

That means, if you throw a coin 2 times, the chances of getting any one of the four possibilities (2 heads, 2 tails, head/tail or tail/head)

I just threw a coin, willing it to come up as two tails.

 Guess what. 2 tails. 25% isn’t such bad odds, eh?

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~ by drownedgirl on March 9, 2007.

6 Responses to “A good omen”

  1. I think those odds are allright 🙂

    I believe the US clinics could have higher success rates because they transfer so many embryos at once, which of course isn’t done in the UK or here (Australia).

    Your donor’s age should be what they base your success rates on. My RE’s put my rate at 40-50% (single embryo transfer) and I’m 30.

  2. Just a correction to the comment above. The US also has limitations on how many embryos can be transferred, which is based on a combination of patient’s age and reproductive history.

    For example, on my 2nd IVF, we ended up with 3 average looking embryos and 1 subpar. If the 3 average embryos had been top grade, they would have only trasferred two in someone younger. Three for someone my age. But, in this case, we transferred all 4 with the understanding that #4 was crap. Accordingly, that IVF was a failure.

    The inflated percentage may more than likely be due to the number of donor egg transfers being done nation wide, which is considerably higher than in the UK.

    Regardless, I would take 25% success anytime over what we would have on our own and that’s pretty much nil.

  3. I love signs, and I look for them obsessively, superstitious witch that I am. And that’s a fabulous sign. 25% just may be your magic number!

  4. Between my 4th and 5th miscarriage, the doctor gave me 5% chance of success in pregnancy.

  5. I’m not sure why your chances would be down at 25% given K’s age. My clinic (also in the UK) has success rates with donors in their 20s of upwards of 40% per cycle, or close to 60% for a fresh plus a subsequent frozen cycle (which is the best estimate of odds because UK clinics will only put 1 or 2 embryos back maximum – and evidence says that putting one back first, plus following up with a frozen cycle if necessary, gives you the same odds as putting more back the first time).

    Anyway, as you say, 25% is not so bad. And hopefully you get something to freeze as well.

  6. Maybe they’re just being cautious. They are a small clinic and don’t have much history, or many transfers racked up.

    2005 Number of embryo transfers 103
    Number of clinical pregnancies 33
    Clinical pregnancy rate / embryo transfer 32%

    THose are the stats for patients under 38.

    They don’t have any stats yet on the HFEA site as they used to be part of a bigger hospital. Maybe they’re obliged to use the average UK rates when they quote you.

    As KF is 28, I’m optimistic. I also get pregnant easily by myself, and always have missed miscarriages at 7/8w or d&cs – so I think my body hangs on to embryos quite reliably, until the game is up. I don’t know how many patients the clinic has, in their late twenties, and I don’t think they do many DE cycles, especially with an outside donor.

    So thanks for that Thalya, I think the real odds must be rather better than 25%.

    We chose the small clinic even though they have low turnover, rather than a really high tech huge place because I hate hospitals, and KF lives out of London and wouldn’t be up for major inconvenience, or too much fussing. We figure the small and friendly approach, with minimal stress, will be best all round. It may well be a factor in success, and at the very least, will make it all bearable!

    PS I’m so glad things are going well for you. Have been reading your blog for a long time.

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